Home

Clinton and Obama Face Off in Kentucky and Oregon

By Chris Cillizza
washingtonpost.com staff writer

Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) and Barack Obama (Ill.) battled in primaries today in Kentucky and Oregon, even as a confident Obama began positioning himself for a general election campaign against Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.).

Clinton entered the day with a strong lead in Kentucky, while Obama was leading substantially in Oregon, according to polling.

At a campaign stop earlier today in Louisville, Clinton dodged questions about how big a role her gender had played in the campaign. "Oh, I'm just having a good time talking to everybody in Kentucky," Clinton said, brushing aside the question to resume posing for pictures and chatting with voters gathered at Lynn's Paradise Cafe.

Bill Clinton, who was campaigning with his wife, was more expansive. "I'm not sure anybody knows yet," he said. "But I think that over time, if you look at the votes, people have become more comfortable about a woman."

He added, "I don't think there is any question there have been moments of gender bias ... but she keeps going."

Exit polling done in both states suggest that the prime motivator for the Democratic electorate is a desire for change. Nearly half of all voters in Kentucky and Oregon cited a candidate's ability to bring about change as the top priority in picking between the two.

Less than a quarter of each electorate said a candidate's experience was the key to making up their minds while roughly one in 10 cited electability.

Nearly two-thirds of Kentucky voters said the economy was the most important issue facing the country while less than half of Oregon Democrats said the same. Nearly one-in-three Oregon voters called the war in Iraq the top issue while roughly two in 10 Kentucky Democrats identified the war as the most pressing matter facing the nation.

Even before all of the results tonight are counted, Obama is expected to declare that he has secured a majority of the pledged delegates to this summer's Democratic national convention in Denver -- a moment that his campaign will tout as a major milestone in his march to the nomination.

Heading into today's votes, Obama had 1,602 pledged delegates or 49.25 percent of the total number at stake in the primaries. Obama campaign manager David Plouffe said that amassing a majority of pledged delegates was an "important" development but quickly added: "We are definitely not going to declare victory."

Seeking to drive home the idea that he is the all-but-certain nominee, Obama will deliver a speech tonight in Iowa, bringing his campaign full circle from his crucial victory in that state's Democratic caucuses on Jan. 3. He also received the endorsement of Iowa Democratic Party Chairman Scott Brennan today. Brennan promised that Obama would "help Iowa Democrats win up and down the ticket in November."

The Clinton campaign has aggressively fought back against the idea that the race is over. Campaign aides released a memo yesterday that called Obama's planned speech in Iowa a "slap in the face to the millions of voters in the remaining primary states and to Senator Clinton's 17 million supporters."

Regardless of Clinton's protestations, the likely general election fight between Obama and Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) has begun in the last few days, with the two sides trading charges over their approaches to dealing with Iran and the influence of lobbyists over their campaigns, with nary a mention of Clinton.

The results in Kentucky and Oregon seem unlikely to alter that dynamic.

Polling in the Bluegrass State shows Clinton with a wide lead. A survey conducted earlier this month for the Lexington Herald-Leader showed Clinton with 58 percent to Obama's 31 percent.
Clinton will spend election night in Louisville alongside her husband, former President Bill Clinton, and the couple's daughter, Chelsea.

Oregon seems to be friendly territory for Obama. He enjoys support in a series of college town along the state's western coast, as well as in the progressive bastion of Portland. About 80,000 people gathered at a rally in Portland over the weekend to hear Obama speak.

At stake in today's voting are 51 pledged delegates in Kentucky and 52 in Oregon. Only Democrats are eligible to vote in each primary.

Polling places opened at 6 a.m. EDT and were scheduled to close at 7 p.m. eastern time in Kentucky. Polls in Oregon opened at 7 a.m. Pacific time in most of the state and were closing at 8 p.m. Oregon is a vote-by-mail state and ballots were first sent out on May 1. More than 800,000 ballots had already been cast as of Monday and state election officials believe another 250,000 will be dropped off at polling places today.

After tonight, just three nominating contests remain. Puerto Rico will vote on June 1 while South Dakota and Montana will bring the race to a close on June 3. None of the remaining contests are expected to alter the math of the Democratic nomination, which is close to determinative in Obama's favor.

A candidates needs a total of 2,025 delegates to secure the nomination. Obama leads Clinton in total delegates -- pledged and super -- 1905.5 to 1723.5. He also holds a 16,157,639 to 15,583,020 popular vote lead over Clinton, according to NBC's political unit.

As of today, slightly more than 200 superdelegates have not stated which candidate they support. Clinton continues to assert that she can attract considerable support among the undeclared superdelegates, but the trend of late has been to Obama, not Clinton.

Clinton Beats Obama in West Virginia

By Chris Cillizza
washingtonpost.com Staff Writer

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) claimed an overwhelming victory over Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) in West Virginia's presidential primary today, a win that increased the likelihood of her continued candidacy but did little to alter her position as a decided underdog in the race for the Democratic nomination.

Polls closed in the Mountain State at 7:30 p.m. eastern time, and moments later the television networks had called the race in Clinton's favor. The former first lady entered the race the strong favorite, and the latest polling suggested she would win by a wide margin. Incomplete returns showed Clinton running ahead of Obama by 2 to 1.

For Clinton, the win - while expected - will further help her to justify remaining in the race despite her drubbing by Obama last week in North Carolina and her very narrow win in Indiana.

"I am more determined than ever to carry on this campaign until everyone has had a chance to make their voices heard," Clinton said defiantly during a victory rally in Charleston, W.Va., shortly after 9 p.m. eastern time. Clinton referenced her comebacks in January's New Hampshire primary and then again in Ohio and Texas in early March as evidence that she has been counted out before and is still standing. "This race isn't over yet," she said. "I am in this race because I believe I'm the strongest candidate."

Meanwhile, Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (Pa.), an Obama supporter, dismissed the potential problems of the clearly divided Democratic electorate -- arguing that when faced with a choice between Obama and Republican Sen. John McCain, many of these voters would side with Obama. "Voters are going to have a very clear choice," Casey said in an interview on MSNBC.

Clinton and her advisers have insisted that the contest is not yet over because neither she nor Obama have secured the total of 2,025 delegates needed to become the party's nominee. Those familiar with her thinking believe she is likely to stay in the race through at least June 3, when primaries in South Dakota and Montana will bring the nomination contest to a close.

The steady stream of superdelegates announcing their support for Obama, however, diminished the impact of Clinton's victory. Today alone, four superdelegates - including former Democratic National Committee Chairman Roy Romer - came out for Obama.

"The math is controlling," said Romer of his decision. "This race, I believe, is over."

That storyline was pushed by Obama's campaign in a memo distributed to reporters this afternoon. Obama's campaign conceded not just West Virginia but also Kentucky, which votes a week from today, to Clinton.

"But with 49 contests behind us and only six to go -- including several states where we expect to do well -- Barack Obama leads in pledged delegates, contest won, and superdelegates," argues the memo.

While Clinton will likely emerge from West Virginia with a double-digit gain among pledged delegates, she still faces a major math problem. Entering today's vote, Obama led Clinton in pledged delegates by 174 and had a 283-to-272.5 lead among superdelegates. In the past week, Obama has added 27 superdelegates - gains that effectively nullify Clinton's victory tonight.

In the face of such daunting odds, Clinton and her campaign remained resolute that her victory in West Virginia, when coupled with other primary wins in Rust-Belt states like Pennsylvania and Ohio, effectively make the argument that she is the stronger Democratic candidates against Sen. John McCain (Ariz.), the presumptive Republican presidential nominee.

"With a record turnout expected in today's primary, West Virginia Democrats will make clear who they believe is the strongest candidate to take on Sen. McCain in the fall," reads a memo released by Clinton's campaign Tuesday afternoon. The memo also notes that no Democrat in the last 90 years has won the White House without carrying West Virginia.

"I think Democrats across the country tomorrow will be asking themselves why Senator Obama -- with all of his money, with all of the great press, with voters being told he was the inevitable nominee -- why did Senator Obama lose West Virginia by 15 points or so?" Clinton communications director Howard Wolfson asked on NBC's "Today" show.

Regardless of whether they believe she can win, Democratic voters seem content to let Clinton remain in the race through the end of the nomination fight. Nearly two-thirds of Democratic voters said Clinton should stay in the race in a recent Washington Post/ABC News survey, and almost 80 percent of West Virginia echoed that sentiment in exit polling, according to Fox News Channel.

West Virginia is one of just six contests left in the Democratic nomination fight. Kentucky and Oregon will cast ballots next Tuesday, while Puerto Rico will hold its primary on June 1. South Dakota and Montana will close out the campaign on June 3.